WTI crude is trading at $91.70 right now, down $1.02 from yesterday’s open. That’s a 1.10% drop, and honestly it feels a bit heavier than the number suggests. We opened at $92.72, poked up to $93.10 in early trade, then spent the rest of the session bleeding lower. The low came in at $91.20, which is exactly where I had my first support level drawn. That’s not a coincidence, but it’s also not a reason to get excited yet.
Oil Price Today Shows a Bearish Drift, Not a Panic
The range today is $1.90, which is wider than the last few sessions. But here’s the thing that bugs me: the selling wasn’t violent. It was just persistent. Every little bounce got sold, and we never really saw buyers step in with any conviction. That’s the kind of tape that grinds you down, and it usually means we’re not done going lower.
I’m not buying the rally attempt we saw at the open. It lasted maybe an hour, then faded. And the volume on the way down was noticeably heavier than the volume on the way up. That’s not a great sign for the bulls. We closed near the lows, which tells me the sellers are still in control into the close.
Yesterday’s Range Tells a Story
Let’s put this in context. The $1.90 range we saw today is bigger than the average over the past two weeks, which was around $1.20. So we’ve got expansion, but it’s expansion to the downside. That’s usually the first step in a new leg down, not the last one. I’d be more comfortable if we’d closed mid-range, but we didn’t.
Key Levels to Watch for WTI Crude Right Now
Here’s the map I’m trading off. These aren’t just random numbers, they’re the spots where the order flow has shown up in the past few days.
- Current: $91.70
- Open: $92.72
- High: $93.10
- Low: $91.20
- Range: $1.90
- Change: -1.02 (-1.10%)
Support Levels for the Crude Price
Support 1 is at $91.20, and we tagged that low today. It held, but barely. Support 2 sits at $90.75, and if we break $91.20 with any kind of momentum, that’s the next stop. I’ve got a lot of resting bids around $90.80, so that could be where the real test happens.
Resistance Levels for the Oil Price
Resistance 1 is back at $93.10, which was today’s high. We couldn’t get through it. Resistance 2 is at $93.83, and that’s a level that’s been important for the last few weeks. We need a close above $93.10 to even start talking about a reversal. Until then, every rally is a shorting opportunity in my book.
The Fundamentals Are Not Helping the Oil Price Today
It’s not just technicals. The macro picture is weighing on crude too. The dollar is a bit firmer this morning, and that’s never good for commodities priced in dollars. But the bigger issue is the demand outlook. We got some weak manufacturing data out of Asia overnight, and the market is starting to price in softer consumption for the rest of the year.
Inventories are still a wildcard. The API report last night showed a build, which is bearish, but the EIA numbers come out later today and that’s the one that actually moves the market. If we see a big build there, we could easily test $91.20 again and break it. If the draw is bigger than expected, we might bounce back to $93.10. I’m not making any big bets until that data hits.
What the Macro Data Is Telling Us
Honestly, the macro signals are mixed. On one hand, we’ve got geopolitical risk that should be supporting prices. On the other hand, the demand side is looking shaky. The market is choosing to focus on the demand side right now, and that’s why we’re lower. That could flip quickly, but I don’t trade on “could”.
My Verdict on the Crude Price Action
I’m not buying the dip yet. The price action today looks like a fakeout to the upside, and we’re now sitting right on support. The close near the low is bearish, and the lack of buying interest is telling. I’d need to see a close back above $92.50 before I’d turn neutral, and a close above $93.10 to get bullish.
For tomorrow, I’m watching $91.20 like a hawk. If that breaks, we’re looking at $90.75 quickly, and then things could get interesting. If it holds, we might grind sideways for a day. But my bias is to the downside until proven otherwise. That’s not a prediction, it’s just how this tape reads.
We’ll see what the EIA data brings. That’s the catalyst that could change everything. Until then, I’m staying small and keeping my stops tight. The easy money was made on the short side today, and I don’t expect tomorrow to be any different unless the data surprises.
